Prime Minister Mark Carney holds a horseshoe as he visits the Calgary Stampede grounds on July 12.Todd Korol/Reuters
Until Mark Carney came along, the Liberals never had a prime minister from the province of Alberta. Mr. Carney was born in 1965 in the Northwest Territories and spent his first six years there. But his formative years – the next 12 – were lived in Edmonton.
Young Mark delivered the Edmonton Journal newspaper. His father Bob was a deputy minister in the Conservative government of Peter Lougheed. Mark was in high school when the Liberals brought in their hated national energy program.
For him, Ontario and Quebec were faraway places. He rarely set foot in eastern Canada until he was in his mid-30s. After high school, he was off to Harvard and Oxford and for work at Goldman Sachs in London, Tokyo and New York. Finally, after 16 years out of the country, he returned – first to Toronto, then Ottawa for his banking career.
Mr. Carney has occasionally prefaced remarks by saying “As an Albertan, I …” but the persona he developed was that of an eastern establishment, well-polished banker. His western wellsprings are not often referenced in the national conversation. But they are well-known in Alberta – and in the Oct. 19 referendum they should count for a lot.
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Put in context, they are a big deal. For almost all of the last six decades, all Albertans have had to look at are Liberal prime ministers from the province of Quebec: There was Pierre Trudeau, Jean Chrétien, Paul Martin, who represented a Quebec riding, and Justin Trudeau. They served a total of 37 years. Throw in the nearly nine years from Tory Brian Mulroney, also a Quebecker, and that makes an astounding 46 of the last 58 years.
Quebec landlords for the West at an 80-per-cent clip? How would Ontarians react to having Albertans as their prime ministers at that rate?
Indications are that Mr. Carney’s origins are paying off. Polls show that roughly half of Albertans view him favourably. That’s much better than his Liberal Party is doing. Two new polls, one by Abacus Data and one by Liaison Strategies, have the Liberals behind the Conservatives by a whopping 20 and 18 percentage points respectively in the province. In other regions, they are ahead by large margins. The difference is night and day.
Compared to Mr. Carney, Justin Trudeau was decidedly unpopular in the province. For the federal side, prospects would be considerably worse in the referendum on separation if Mr. Trudeau remained at the helm.
As it looks now, the remain side appears headed for an imposing victory. A CBC poll shows 72 per cent of respondents wanting the province to stay in Canada. The size of the win will be of great significance as it could determine whether the secession movement survives or is killed off.
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Along with his Alberta identity, Mr. Carney has other selling points. Before entering politics he was an avid environmentalist, devoting much of his time to net-zero climate crisis initiatives that are anathema to much of the Alberta population. Since that time he has altered course. He has abandoned Justin Trudeau’s carbon tax. He has reached an agreement with Premier Danielle Smith for a new West Coast pipeline. He has moved the Liberal Party off its left-side moorings to the more business-friendly centre.
He likely won’t be campaigning much in Alberta. To put the referendum in the news a lot sets the temperature too high. It gives the impression that he is concerned a lot.
Mr. Carney is no stranger to elections in Alberta. As a campaigner, he got an early start: At age 15 he was posting lawn signs for his father, who ran in the 1980 election for the Liberals in Edmonton South.
The Liberals were ahead in the national polls, so it was believed he had a chance of winning. But Mark Carney learned then how difficult it was for the party in the province: His dad got clobbered by the Tory candidate, Douglas Roche.
That was the same year as the first Quebec referendum. Unlike this one in Alberta, it was expected to be very close. Then-prime minister Pierre Trudeau stayed out of it for the most part, making only three appearances, but to emphatic effect. The federal side won handily.
Just as is the case today, fortune was with the federal side. Alberta’s Joe Clark, who had no traction in Quebec, had been defeated in the federal election to start the year. Instead of Mr. Clark, the election allowed for a favoured son to be in the PM’s chair for that referendum – just as the resignation of Pierre Trudeau’s son allows a home-province PM to be a force in the Alberta ballot.