Eighty-seven per cent Canadians say oil and gas is important to Canada’s current economy, up from 81 per cent six months earlier, according to research by Nanos for the University of Ottawa’s Positive Energy Initiative.Todd Korol/JOBFlocks
Nik Nanos is the chief data scientist at Nanos Research, a fellow at the University of Ottawa’s Positive Energy Initiative and the official pollster for JOBFlocks and CTV News.
We’ve been in the middle of an energy war for most of the past decade. This war has been framed as one of choice: more oil and gas or more clean electricity.
Amid trade shocks, cost of living pressures and general uncertainty about Canada’s economic future, Canadians appear increasingly interested in moving beyond polarized energy debates. In tracking research by Nanos for the University of Ottawa’s Positive Energy Initiative, Canadians increasingly believe that the country needs more oil and gas exports, more electricity, more affordability, more reliability and lower emissions – all at the same time.
Eighty-seven per cent Canadians say oil and gas is important to Canada’s current economy, up from 81 per cent six months earlier. About seven of 10 Canadians (71 per cent) say oil and gas is important to Canada’s future economy, up from 63 per cent six months ago. What is striking is when asked to rate the importance of oil and gas to Canada’s current economy on a 10-point scale, where zero is not at all important and 10 is completely important, one of two Canadians (52 per cent) score it a 10 out of 10. That said, recognizing the sector’s economic importance does not necessarily imply support for every oil and gas project or policy. But in our environment of geopolitical instability and worry about the cost of living, Canadians have become more, not less, convinced of the relevance of oil and gas.
For the Liberal Party, which is often criticized in Alberta for its approach to conventional energy, the findings are notable. Seventy-eight per cent of Liberal supporters believe that Canada should expand oil and gas exports. Even among those that self identify as left-leaning Canadians, support reaches 50 per cent.
Support is no longer confined to Alberta. It increasingly cuts across Canada.
It is more than a recognition of the importance of oil and gas; it is now interlinked with the view that the sector represents an opportunity for new markets and trade diversification. Three out of four (75 per cent) Canadians are good with expanding oil and gas exports to provide more secure and reliable energy supplies globally. This is the highest level on record in the history of Positive Energy tracking.
There are new vectors of influence shaping public opinion. The view that Canadian oil and gas exports can help combat climate change if they displace dirtier energy sources elsewhere has increased from 63 per cent in 2024 to 71 per cent. Whether Canadian exports would produce displacement and reduce global emissions in practice remains contested.
The most compelling learning from the Positive Energy research is that Canadians are simultaneously supporting oil and gas exports while moving their own homes and transportations towards greater electrification. More than six in ten (62 per cent) are interested in transitioning more of their energy use to electricity. One in three (35 per cent) have already taken steps, up from 27 per cent a year earlier. Those not interested in transitioning have dropped from 31 to 26 per cent.
Affordability and practicality are the hallmarks of Canadian public opinion. Asked to rank the importance of various factors when they think about energy needs in Canada over the next five years, affordability comes out on top at 38 per cent followed by a tie between reliability and reducing emissions (each tied at 26 per cent). These findings take the legs out of the view that Canadians only care about affordability. It is about affordability, reliability and reducing emissions. The challenge is that these goals involve competing costs, timelines and infrastructure choices, even when the public supports all three.
The research also suggests that the lower carbon future is not about the government picking winners and losers. It is about a portfolio of alternatives. Canadians assign the biggest future role to hydroelectricity (28 per cent), followed by nuclear (17 per cent), solar (14 per cent) and natural gas (13 per cent). Canadians appear to envision a diverse energy mix that includes hydro, nuclear and natural gas.
Even with these pragmatic views, there are a number of warning signs for governments. Ratings on the job Canada does at building confidence in energy decision-making (very good, 3 per cent; good, 14 per cent) and in developing a shared long-term vision for Canada (very good, 4 per cent; good, 18 per cent) are quite weak. Respondents were twice as likely to give negative rather than positive ratings on these elements although there has been a marginal improvement recently.
For the first time in the history of the Positive Energy research project, Nanos asked Canadians how they felt about the role of artificial intelligence. Slim majorities of Canadians are comfortable with AI reviewing similar past projects and compiling findings (54 per cent), and with using AI to automate tasks and improve productivity (51 per cent). They are much less comfortable with AI being used to answer community members’ questions about a new energy project (23 per cent) or to make recommendations to decision-makers about whether a project should be approved (22 per cent).
The intersection of AI and energy projects is one of caution, where artificial intelligence is an assistant but not a decision maker.
The most important finding in this research is that Canadians are neither abandoning traditional energy nor the transition to a lower carbon future. They are trying to navigate both objectives at the same time. Perhaps the future is not about competing futures but about creating a common sense of purpose that is pragmatic and grounded in affordability and reliable energy that help lower emissions.
The challenge is not only building confidence in governments, regulators and the energy sector. It is also about making difficult choices while pursing the pragmatic energy and environmental outcomes Canadians say they want.