Inside the Market’s roundup of some of today’s key analyst actions
Barrick Mining Corp.’s (ABX-T) new agreement with Newmont Corp. (NEM-N) provides a notable cash injection of US$1.95-billion as well as a “pathway to optimize” their Nevada Gold Mines joint venture, according to National Bank Financial analyst Shane Nagle.
“Barrick will contribute Fourmile to the NGM JV, with Newmont contributing Mike/Fiberline and paying US$1.95-billion cash, resolving the outstanding JV disputes,” he said. “Management values the total package at US$4-billion; based on our estimates, this implies 1.2 times our Base Case NAV for Fourmile.
“We view the transaction positively as it allows for optimization opportunities across NGM now that the disputes have been resolved. Barrick ended Q2/26 with US$1.25-billion in net cash and continues to target a 10-per-cent North American IPO by year-end, with the vast majority of proceeds expected to be returned to shareholders (likely via share repurchases).”
While investors gave the deal a harsh initial reaction, sending its shares lower by 6.5 per cent on Monday, Mr. Nagle focused on the resolution of lingering disputes hovering over NGM, which included Newmont’s claims of mismanagement by Barrick earlier this year, as well as Barrick’s better-than-anticipated second-quarter results.
“On the Q2 conference call, management addressed what it viewed as a misconception around the economics of the transaction, noting that the total value of the consideration package is approximately US$4-billion, including the cash payment and the Mike and Fiberline properties being contributed by Newmont, which contain approximately 6.4 million oinces of total resources,” he added. “Management also highlighted significant synergy and optimization opportunities across the broader NGM portfolio now that the dispute with Newmont has been settled. With the transaction framework now agreed, we expect investor focus to shift toward execution of Fourmile development, realization of these broader NGM opportunities and the planned North American IPO.
“Based on our estimates, including the value of the properties contributed by Newmont brings the implied consideration for Fourmile to approximately 1.2 times our Base Case NAV, compared with 0.57 times when considering the US$1.95-billion cash payment alone.”
Maintaining his “outperform” rating for Barrick shares, Mr. Nagle increased his target price to $70.00 from $67.50. The average on the Street is $75.95.
“We have rolled our valuation methodology forward to 6.0 times EV/2027E EBITDA from 6.5 times EV/2026E EBITDA previously aligning our multiple with Senior Gold Peers and remaining conservative given the potential for further cost escalation into 2027 resulting from prolonged unrest in the Middle East,” he said. “We have also incorporated the US$1.95-billion cash consideration from the Newmont transaction and reducing our attributable interest in Fourmile following its contribution to NGM.
“Our Outperform rating remains based on Barrick’s discounted valuation, improving operating execution and the potential for further value realization from its North American portfolio. The Newmont agreement resolves the outstanding NGM disputes, provides a defined path for Fourmile into the JV and removes a key impediment to the planned North American IPO.”
Elsewhere, others making target adjustments include:
* ATB Cormark’s Richard Gray to $57 from $60 with a “sector perform” rating.
“The agreement to vend the Fourmile project into the NGM will allow Barrick and Newmont to maximize value of the JV, and potentially accelerate development of this world-class deposit. However, the lack of clarity on the agreement created uncertainty among investors, and the notional value of $4.0-billion indicated by Barrick management as the return for the vend-in is underwhelming relative to our estimates, and thus we view this deal as dilutive to our NAV,” said Mr. Gray.
* Raymond James’ Brian MacArthur to $56 from $58 with an “outperform” rating.
“Barrick has a controlling interest in numerous high-quality gold mines and copper assets that allows it to generate strong cash flow. The no-premium deal with Randgold provided more tier-one assets and free cash flow, but also increased Barrick’s jurisdictional risk given Randgold’s large African portfolio. The creation of the Nevada JV with Newmont consolidated management at the world’s largest gold complex and provided the opportunity to create meaningful synergies,” said Mr. MacArthur.
* TD Cowen’s Steven Green to $59 from $61 with a “buy” rating.
“We have updated our model, including Fourmile being vended into NGM which results in a 4-per-cent NAV dilution and reduces our target price to $59 (from $61). We see positive potential offsets however, from accelerating development, a clean slate in terms of their relationship with JV partner NEM, pending NA IPO, and scope to add value in Nevada, which we view as significant,” he said.
RBC Dominion Securities analyst Pammi Bir thinks a pullback in share price for Sienna Senior Living Inc. (SIA-T) following last week’s release of its second-quarter financial results provides a “better entry” for investors, leading him to upgrade his recommendation to “outperform” from “sector perform” previously.
“On the back of Q2 results that exceeded our call, the operating outlook remains robust, supported by advances in SIA’s platform, multi-year demographic demand tailwinds, increases in govt funding, and muted new retirement supply,” he added. “Our estimates moved up, while the new JV with Fiera should help expedite LTC [long-term care] redevelopments and diversify risks. The recent pullback has SIA trading below NAV and below its LTA [long-term average] premium . All said, we see a better entry point to a name with attractive growth and a solid balance sheet.”
On Aug.4, the Markham, Ont.-based company reported underlying operating funds from operations per share, excluding retroactive funding of 35 cents, up 11 per cent year-over-year (from 32 cents) and ahead of both Mr. Bir’s 33-cent estimate and the consensus forecast of 34 cents.
“Our overall read on the quarter and outlook is positive, with robust organic growth and 2026 LTC SP NOI [same property net operating income] guidance raised for the second time this year,” he added. “The beat vs. our call was mainly from higher NOI and lower G&A. Total SP NOI increased 14.2 per cent year-over-year/12.3 per cent year-to-date (or 19.4 per cent/13.9 per cent including retroactive income).”
Mr. Bir also emphasized Sienna’s formation of a new joint venture with Fiera Infrastructure, a global infrastructure investment manager and a wholly owned subsidiary of Fiera Capital Corp. (FSZ-T), is likely to expedite its LTC redevelopment program and “diversify risks.”
“With ample liquidity, SIA reiterated its call for the potential to match 2025 acquisitions (approximately $600-million vs. $188-mllion year-to-date),” he explained. “Quebec is in particular focus as it looks to establish a footprint. In LTC, SIA formed a new 50/50 JV with Fiera Infrastructure. The JV is targeting $625-million of costs, with SIA’s Glen Rouge and Streetsville LTC redevelopments among the first. The JV lays the framework to expedite projects and manage balance sheet exposure, while also providing the latest illustration of rising institutional appetite for LTC.”
After increasing his earnings and net asset value assumptions through 2027 and introducing his 2028 projections, Mr. Bir moved his target for Sienna shares to $26 from $25. The average is $26.33.
“Revisions mainly reflect higher organic NOI and acquisitions,” he said. “Our 2025-27 CAGR [compound annual growth rate] is 5 per cent, or 8 per cent excluding 1-time items, below its seniors housing peers (14 per cent) but well ahead of the sector (3 per cent). Our current/1YR FWD NAVPS rise $1 each to $22.50/$24 on a lower cap rate and higher NOI.”
“SIA is down 8 per cent since mid-July, in line with CSH, but below the TSX REIT Index (down 5 per cent). The shares trade at negative 4 per cent P/NAV (16 times 2027 estimated AFFO/7-per-cent implied cap), below its LTA (4-per-cent P/NAV) and CSH (6-per-cent P/NAV), albeit above the sector (negative 10 per cent). We see current levels as a better entry to a name with attractive growth, long-term demographic tailwinds, and a strong balance sheet
Citing an “improving medium-term outlook,” ATB Cormark analyst Tim Monachello upgraded his rating for Calfrac Well Services Ltd. (CFW-T) to “outperform” from “sector perform” previously.
“We believe CFW is well positioned to take advantage of an improving North American outlook amid strengthening demand and structural efficiency gains following recent fleet redeployments,” he said. “Furthermore, CFW offers leverage to a robust, long-term growth trajectory in Argentina, where its expanded $23-million capital program is directly funding high-margin, contracted capacity additions in the Vaca Muerta.”
Mr. Monachello’s change comes following the Aug. 6 release of second-quarter results that exceeded expectations, including earnings per share of 31 cents (versus his 20-cent projection).
“Outperformance was supported by its strategic closure of its Marcellus operating base in midMay and the redeployment of the fleet into the Rockies and Canada, driving improved cost absorption, and operational synergies,” he added. “We understand CFW intends to monetize its Marcellus facility over the medium-term, which we estimate could generate roughly $5-million-$15-million in proceeds (not included in our model). CFW’s NAM activity outlook has strengthened amid stronger crude pricing, and we expect this momentum to persist in H2/26, particularly in the US where CFW is seeing pricing improvement, and while visibility (particularly for Q4/26) and pricing outlooks are more subdued in Canada, we believe the outlook remains constructive. Given the positive outlook in NAM fracturing activity and visibility to stronger efficiency, we increase our for H2/26 EBITDA by 20 per cent, by 16 per cent in 2027, and by 15 per cent in 2028.”
With his new estimates, Mr. Monachello raised his target for Calfrac shares to $9 from $7.50. The average is $7.83.
In a client note released before the bell titled Too Many Catalysts to Fade the Trade, Scotia Capital analyst Jonathan Goldman said Russel Metals Inc. (RUS-T) is poised to benefit for more than just pricing momentum.
“While pricing is the most significant catalyst, there are several others: (1) solid activity levels that continued into 3Q; (2) easy comps in 2H in both MSC [Metals Service Centers] and Energy Field Stores; (3) upside risk to guidance, particularly MSC margin guidance calling for down quarter-over-quarter despite HRC/plate up 5 per cent/up 9 per cent quarter-to-date, which supports holding gains (i.e., margin expansion); (4) lots of runway on Kloeckner integration (we estimate EBITDA margins are still 160bp below legacy); and (5) lots of dry powder with net debt leverage including leases at 0.8 times,” he said.
“RUS shares trade at 10 times EV/EBITDA on our 2026/2027, a 2.5 times discount to RS-US vs. the 10-year average of 1.5 times.”
On Aug. 6, the Toronto-based company revealed better-than-expected second-quarter results with adjusted EBITDA of $154-million topped the consensus estimate ($113-million) by 36 per cent.
“Management expects 3Q MSC gross margins to be similar to the 1H average and shipments to remain near 1H levels due to steady activity across most regions,” said Mr. Goldman. “Over the medium term, the company expects to benefit from investments in U.S. industrial manufacturing, Canadian nation building projects, and data center development while gaining market share through continued investments in value-added equipment, facility modernizations and acquisitions. Energy Field Stores should continue to benefit from solid energy activity in 2026.”
“We estimate every US$25/ton move in HRC, all else equal, translates to $10 million/$0.12 (2 per cent/3 per cent) impact to our 2026E EBITDA/EPS. For context, we are modeling 3Q HRC price of US$1,200/ton, the average of Aug/Sep futures, vs. spot as of July 27 (latest data available) of US$1,345/ton. We are in-line with consensus. The futures curve is in backwardation, but the entire curve moved up by 1.7 per cent in the past three weeks. The operating environment seems supportive of current price levels, namely solid demand levels, healthy mill operating rates, and extended lead times. Moreover, we previously discussed how S232 tariffs could raise the floor price for NA steel (see 2018 as a precedent).”
Keeping a “sector outperform” rating for shares of Russel, Mr. Goldman hiked his target to $89 from $76. The average on the Street is $66.57.
Elsewhere, TD Cowen’s Michael Tupholme push his target to $94 from $68 with a “buy” rating.
“Robust Q2/26 results were supported by favorable mkt. conditions (incl. record quarterly. Svc Ctrs vols. & elevated steel prices), share gains and solid execution. Favourable mkt. dynamics are expected to persist and help drive cont’d strong performance over coming qtrs. We also like RUS’ medium-long term margin improvement opportunity (through Kloeckner and value-add/modern. projects) and its strong balance sheet,” said Mr. Tupholme.
When Canadian Tire Corporation Ltd. (CTC.A-T) reports its second-quarter results before the bell on Thursday, Desjardins Securities analyst Chris Li is expecting to see “continuing benefits from True North initiatives (modest margin expansion and good SG&A control), resilient consumer demand, value-enhancing initiatives and a World Cup boost (SportChek), partly offset by a tough 2Q25 CTR comp, a delayed spring, rising cost pressures and growth investments.”
“We expect better visibility on revenue growth and operating leverage to support further share price appreciation,” he added in a client report.
Mr. Li is now projecting adjusted earnings per share for the quarter of $3.90, a gain of 9.2 per cent year-over-year (from $3.57) but 3 cents under the consensus estimate on the Street.
“We expect Retail revenue (ex petroleum) growth of 1.5 per cent (largely in line with consensus) with CTR stable (tough 2Q25 comp) and solid growth of 5 per cent at SportChek (World Cup),” he noted. “Consistent with the backdrop in 1Q, we expect Retail results to reflect ongoing benefits from True North initiatives. Consumers remain resilient but highly value-conscious, and sales from loyalty members continue to outpace those from non-loyalty customers. While 2Q got off to a slow start due to a delayed spring, a much more seasonal June likely helped the quarter end on a more positive note. Strategic investments to enhance value offering (price adjustments, enhanced personalized offers, own brands, product newness etc) and new loyalty partnerships are also helping to drive growth. Prices on more than 10,000 SKUs were lowered in 1Q.
“A key priority is products priced more than $50 (represent more than half of sales), with plans to add thousands of SKUs. Despite headwinds from higher fuel and product costs, we expect Retail gross margin (ex petroleum) to increase by 20 basis points year-over-year in part helped by AI-driven margin management enabling targeted value investments with manageable impact on profitability. For Financial Services, we expect revenue growth of 5 per cent, largely driven by GAAR growth. While insolvencies are being monitored, we believe risk metrics remain stable for now with no alarming trends seen in cardholder payment behaviour. We forecast IBT of $84-million.”
Reaffirming his “buy” rating for Canadian Tire shares, Mr. Li raised his target to $217 from $200. The average is $211.25.
Stifel analyst Cole McGill thinks investors are “discounting the scale potential, infrastructure advantage and margin profile” of Gold X2 Mining Inc.’s (AUXX-X) 1OO-per-cent-owned Moss Project in northern Ontario.
Also emphasizing its leadership team possesses “significant project advancement [and exit] experience,” he initiated coverage of Vancouver-based company with a “buy” rating.
“Similar Archean, Canadian bulk tonnage gold deposits have grown scheduled ounces by 215 per cent on average alongside 81-per-cent NAV growth [gold price normalized] since respective initial scoping, according to our ‘Full Potential’ NAV analysis,” said Mr. McGill. “Trading at 0.38 times P/NAV (peers at 0.35 times), we expect the current 160-kilometres drilling blitz to better detail ounce confidence, waste/ore conversion, and structural exploration upside, providing a view to the current project representing a beachhead to broader district value [46-per-cent NAV upside] and unlocking a rerate towards our target.”
“We think the market misunderstands three aspects of Moss that could drive rerating: (1) resource confidence, where the updated 2026 resource estimate authored by GMS is anchored by a dual grade control program to better fingerprint shear domains, estimate mineralization controls and inherently structure the resource as more minable, (2) margin profile of Moss is stronger to comparable Canadian bulk tonnage projects on FID, indicating the economic precedent of higher gold price to unlock value and (3) asset growth potential, where we detail the ‘Lassonde Curve Epilogue’ of bulk tonnage projects by way of ‘beachhead’ assets that lend upside to growing NAVPS organically (Malartic, Detour, Cote have averaged 215-per-cent scheduled ounce accretion and 81-per-cent NAV accretion versus respective initial scoping studies above the gold price impact), with 6 times prospective structure vs. current Moss strike.”
The analyst set a target of $15 per share. The average is $11.24.
“The Moss Project represents one of the larger, scalable and advanceable gold development projects in Canada, underpinned by a robust GMS authored PEA, significant infrastructure access, and strategic backing (AngloGold Ashanti 9.9-per-cent ownership). We think the market is mispricing three key aspects in i) a remodelled, increasingly robust MRE, ii) a comparable margin profile of the current project to other Canadian bulk tonnage projects on FID and iii) the growth potential of Moss post initial production, which could see a phased development approach to +300kozpa,” he concluded.
In other analyst actions:
* Expecting its growth to exceed peers in 2028 and touting both its improving financial trajectory and operational performance, BofA Securities’ Matthew Griffiths gave BCE Inc. (BCE-N, BCE-T) a double upgrade to “buy” from “underperform” with a $38 target, up from $34 and above the $36.82 average.
* ATB Cormark’s Sairam Srinivas cut his target for units of Canadian Apartment Properties REIT (CAR.UN-T) to $43 from $48, keeping an “outperform” rating. The average is $42.21
“CAPREIT reported Q2/26 FFO/unit of $0.654, down 1.0 per cent year-over-year, and shy of our $0.66 estimate and consensus. The miss relative to our forecast was on higher G&A which offset a higher NOI. Market moderation across the country continued to impact leasing spreads, with turnover being dominated by near-term leases (~51% of expiring leases), limiting the upside. We expect this to be a continuing trend over the next 4-6 quarters as the REIT absorbs all the near-term leases,” said Mr. Srinivas.
* TD Cowen’s Graham Ryding moved his Canaccord Genuity Group Inc. (CF-T) target to $18 from $16 with a “buy” rating. The average on the Street is $16.92.
“Wealth management and capital markets both made healthy contributions in FQ1/27. Our estimates have moved higher to reflect more constructive outlooks for capital markets and UK wealth management,” said Mr. Ryding.
* Desjardins Securities’ Lorne Kalmar raised his Dream Office REIT (D.UN-T) target to $20 from $18.50, keeping a “hold” rating, while TD Cowen’s Sam Damiani increased his target to $19 from $18 with a “hold” rating. The average is $19.61.
“2Q results were well ahead of expectations as the quarter benefited from tenants taking occupancy earlier than expected, percentage rents and lower utilities. While we are forecasting average FFOPU growth of 7 per cent in 2027/28, there is some degree of uncertainty owing to the large amount of lease expiries next year (752,000sf). We would become more constructive on the name upon seeing positive progress on 2027 renewals and thus gaining greater clarity around the earnings growth outlook,” said Mr. Kalmar.
* Stifel’s Justin Keywood increased his DRI Healthcare Trust (DHT.UN-T) target to $26 from $25 with a “buy” rating. The average is $22.50.
“DRI posted another impressive quarter, with a strong beat across income, cash receipts and EBITDA,” Mr. Keywood said. “[Monday], DRI also said it received cash proceeds of US$178-million ($250-million, $4.5/sh) PUT option, related to the Kalvista (KALV) take-out (Ekterly), leading to pro-forma liquidity of US$740-million (1.5 times levered). DRI conveyed at least one transaction to be executed in H2 as the NCIB may also be active in bridging discounted valuation at only ~6x NTM EBITDA. We favor DRI’s cost-sharpened platform to incorporate additional royalties, following last year’s manager internalization, demonstrated with 91.6-per-cent Q2 adj. EBITDA margins (up 1600bps year-over-year), demonstrating operating leverage. Orserdu (lead asset) continues to outperform as well, despite near-term competitive pressure as DRI expects 2026 EBITDA to be at or above the upperbound of guidance, mitigating near-term concerns. We believe DRI will be active in near-term M&A to diversify the portfolio, following the liquidity infusion, helping bridge the valuation gap.
* National Bank’s Matt Kornack trimmed his Northview Residential REIT (NRR.UN-T) target to $17.75 from $18, keeping a “sector perform” rating. Other changes include: RBC’s Jimmy Shan to $17 from $17.50 with a “sector perform” rating and Desjardins Securities’ Kyle Stanley to $17.50 from $18 with a “hold” rating. The average is $17.80.
“The quarter for NRR was a bit light of expectations as same property revenue growth decelerated while margins contracted,” said Mr. Kornack. “Occupancy was largely stable sequentially with some upside potential at current levels (year-over-year declines were the main contributor to lower growth rates) while SPAMR [same property average monthly rent] growth continued at a healthy clip (up approximately 4 per cent), led by Atlantic and Western Canada. As an offset to slower than expected ops performance, the REIT continues to make progress on balance sheet items and post-quarter saw an additional reduction in its variable rate financing costs. Apartment markets are generally more competitive but NRR’s portfolio should be somewhat shielded from population/supply related pressures.”
* Mr. Kornack increased his target for California-based SmartStop Self Storage REIT (SMA-N), which possesses a growing portfolio in Canada and high-growth markets in the U.S., to US$38.50 from US$37.50 with an “outperform” rating. The average is $3645.
“Q2 core ops were better than expected, with NOI at 3.8 per cent relative to our estimates on slightly higher revenues/lower operating costs,” said Mr. Kornack. “The managed REIT business contributed less than expected but was subject to some non-cash adjustments in the quarter. Elsewhere, headline G&A was above with the bulk of the variance related to IPO and legacy performance grants, which get added back to earnings. Interest expense / income items tracked closely. Taken together, FFO/u [funds from operations per unit] was in line (up 0.2 per cent) and up an impressive 19 per cent year-over-year. Despite the in-line print, we consider the quarter to be a beat as ops drove a positive variance with an improved outlook whereas G&A and managed REIT performance tend to be more variable and subject to non-recurring items. Model updates saw NAV increase 2-plus per cent on the back of the better than expected NOI print and growth outlook.”
Editor’s note: An earlier version of this article said the BofA target change for BCE shares was in U.S. currency. It was in Canadian dollars. It has been updated.