Inside the Market’s roundup of some of today’s key analyst actions
Note: This file will not be published on Friday. It will return on Monday.
Stifel analyst Martin Landry lowered his first-quarter fiscal 2027 earnings expectation for Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc. (ATD.B-T) ahead of the release of its financial results on Sept. 1, projecting lower-than-previously-anticipated merchandise same-store-sales and higher SG&A expenses.
“In recent quarters, Couche-Tard’s U.S. merchandise same-store-sales growth had accelerated as the company benefited from momentum in food, energy drinks and other nicotine products,” he explained. “However, recent results from three industry peers point to a slight deceleration sequentially, and we believe that ATD could face the same headwinds. It is unclear if this slowdown is temporary, but at this point we have not changed our U.S. merchandise samestore-sales growth rate for the remainder of the year and expect a 3-per-cent year-over-year growth in Q2, Q3 and Q4FY27.
“We believe that the narrative may switch to the Żabka acquisition this fall.”
Warning Couche-Tard’s same-store sales result could disappoint the Street, Mr. Landry is now projecting earnings per share for the quarter of 87 cents, a decline of 5 cents from his precious forecast and 4 cents under the consensus estimate.
“While the earnings growth of 12 per cent year-over-year is healthy, it is mainly driven by higher gasoline margins on a year-over-year basis,” he added. “Should results exhibit a lower sequential U.S. merchandise same-store-sales growth, as expected, we believe this may be a focus of questions on the earnings call.”
“We are decreasing our Q1FY27 U.S. same-store sales growth estimate by 150 basis points to 1.5 per cent. We have adjusted our numbers following a slowdown in the performance of 7-Eleven. For the three months ended July 31st, 7-Eleven’s merchandise same-store-sales were flat, vs a growth of 0.8 per cent in the previous quarter ended on April 30th, 2026. In the last 10 quarters, Couche-Tard has outperformed 7-Eleven by 150 basis points, suggesting that our previous assumption of a growth of 3 per cent in U.S. merchandise same-store sales was too high. In addition, for the three-month period ended June 30, 2026, both ARKO and Murphy USA reported decelerating sales growth with Murphy USA exhibiting a 240 basis points sequential decline in cigarette sales. This could suggest a slower growth rate in cigarettes for Q1FY27 vs what Couche-Tard has reported in recent quarters.”
Also expecting flat U.S. merchandise margins and warning its U.S. fuel margin performance versus the industry median will likely shrink, Mr. Landry trimmed his target for Couche-Tard shares to $108 from $110, keeping a “buy” rating and seeing an “attractive” valuation. The average target on the Street is $104.18.
“ATD’s shares trade at approximately 17.5 times forward earnings, in line with the 10-year average, while Canadian peers, such as grocers and dollar stores trade at a higher premium to their historical averages,” he noted. “ATD’s growth prospects have increased recently with the proposed acquisition of Żabka Group. This acquisition could be accretive to EPS by low double digits with 100-per-cent ownership and full synergies realized.”
In a client report released before the bell titled The Buck Doesn’t Stop Here, Ventum Financial analyst George Doumet initiated coverage of Dollarama Inc. (DOL-T) with a “buy” rating, believing its “story has been defined by an ability to repeatedly find the next leg of growth.”
“Breaking the $1 ceiling expanded the assortment and in-store economics, while unit growth, margin expansion, and buybacks transformed DOL into one of Canada’s premier compounders,” he said. “When low inflation and weaker traffic challenged the formula in C2018, DOL rebuilt comps through transactions before the inflationary cycle broadened its customer base and accelerated market share gains. Dollarcity then proved the model could travel, paving the way for Mexico and Australia. Today, DOL has evolved from a Canadian dollar store into a multi-continent value platform, with each new growth lever extending the runway and supporting the approximately 60-times return since IPO.”
Mr. Doumet said the Montreal-based retailer has “spent the last several years extending its runway,” and “the next phase is about converting it into earnings.”
“Peak investment across Mexico and Australia makes this year (F2027) a trough year by design,” he explained. “From there, international losses moderate, capex falls, CARS (Dollarcity in LatAm) continues to compound, and Australia begins its margin transformation. In Canada, stronger same-store sales growth (SSSG) and the potential introduction of a $6 price point provide upside. We forecast EPS of $5.19 in F2027 and $5.94 in F2028, well ahead of consensus. Importantly, our estimates have DOL returning back to its historical EPS growth algorithm in F2028, one year earlier than consensus.”
“There is something to like in each of DOL’s four growth platforms. Canada remains the earnings anchor, with continued whitespace and a potential $6 price point that could provide a near-term boost to comps and expand margins. CARS is a capital-light second engine, compounding earnings at mid-teens, while increasingly returning cash to DOL. In Mexico, the Company is running a proven playbook in its largest addressable market yet. If consumer acceptance proves to be high, the long-term upside could be significant. Australia offers perhaps the clearest self-help opportunity, with significant whitespace and a 900 bps gross margin gap to close versus Canada.”
Emphasizing “you usually get what you pay for,” Mr. Doumet acknowledged his target of $225 for Dollarama shares at 38 times price-to-earnings “is not cheap and sits toward the high end of DOL’s historical range.” The average on the Street is $215.
“That said, investors are paying that multiple on trough earnings growth, with EPS growth set to accelerate from 10 per cent in F2027 toward 15 per cent by F2028,supported by increasingly diversified and proven global growth streams,” he added. “Importantly, our DCF suggests the market is assigning little value to Australia and Mexico today, despite these businesses contributing $28 per share to our valuation and turning cash positive in F2031 and F2032, respectively. Walmart and Costco demonstrate that best-in-class value retailers can sustain elevated multiples. Yet they both trade at a premium to DOL, despite the Company’s similar growth and superior returns. The historic justification for Dollarama’s discount (namely geographic concentration, a single format, a finite Canadian runway) is precisely what the last three years have addressed.”
While acknowledging BRP Inc. (DOO-T) has “taken measures to reduce the sizable impact from Section 232 tariff changes implemented earlier this year and further relief may be on the horizon due to additional company mitigation efforts as well as potential new trade agreements,” National Bank Financial analyst Cameron Doerksen continues to see lower year-over-year earnings from the Quebec-based recreational vehicle manufacturer in the coming quarters.
“In reporting Q1 results in May, BRP management outlined its tariff mitigations. Of the estimated $500-$550-million original tariff impact estimate ($650-$700-million annualized), BRP identified about $200-million worth of mitigation measures ($225-$250-million annualized). The near-term mitigation efforts are focused on overhead cost reductions (which are more short-term in nature), an acceleration of lean initiatives (more permanent savings of $100 million), and some minor pricing adjustments in international markets.
“Management is focused on growing its market position in the U.S., so the company will not make any more significant tariff mitigation changes (supply chain adjustments or manufacturing footprint) or pricing adjustments until there is more clarity around the permanence of the Section 232 tariffs. However, as we highlight below, the company is making product adjustments/enhancements that will allow some new off-road models (utility side-by-sides mainly) to be more compliant with current tariff rules thus further mitigating the Section 232 tariff impact for the company. We expect management will update these numbers with the Q2 report as it continues to pursue additional measures to reduce the tariff impact.”
Mr. Doerksen thinks the biggest news to come out of its annual Club BRP dealer and distributor showcase, which was held earlier this week in Boston, was the commitment to launch a major new off-road product every six months for the next four years.
“Recall that BRP is aiming to become the number one OEM for North American ORV in terms of market share (Polaris is currently number one) and this announcement is a clear commitment to further share gains,” he said. “The company’s strategy to introduce new products and out-innovate the competition has been a successful one with BRP noting that since the season 2015 model year, BRP’s unit growth in SSVs [side-by-side vehicles] is up 342 per cent with all other OEMs flat. Aggressively introducing new models should further improve dealer engagement as a dealer that is committing floor space to Can-Am products will do so knowing they will get a major new product every six months.”
“At the show, BRP announced several new model ORVs that include standard features that will allow the vehicles to be more compliant with current tariff rules, which over time will help with mitigation (certain more utility-focused models are not impacted by the tariffs). We expect the company to continue to update its product line-up with an eye on minimizing tariffs.”
Maintaining his “sector perform” rating for BRP shares, Mr. Doerksen raised his target to $98 from $84. The average is $95.
“We previously valued the stock by applying an 8.0 times EV/EBITDA multiple to our F2028 estimates. However, we have growing confidence that BRP can further lower the tariff headwind and there is also growing optimism that new trade deals can lower tariffs. In that light, we are increasing our valuation multiple to 9.0 times,” he explained.
Desjardins Securities analyst Bryce Adams thinks the impact of Lundin Mining Corp.’s (LUN-T) decision to reduced its 2026 production guidance “as a temporary operational setback as the damage is limited to power infrastructure and full power restoration is expected by the end of the week.”
Before the bell on Wednesday, the Vancouver-based company cut its expectations after a second winter storm in Chile’s Atacama region affected production at its Caserones mine. It now expects copper production at Caserones this year to total 120,000 to 130,000 tons, down from an earlier forecast for 130,000 to 140,000 tons.
“We updated our model and now forecast copper production of 314kt at US$1.99/lb in 2026, within the revised guidance ranges,” said Mr. Adams. “Caserones represents 40 per cent of our 2026E production and 15 per cent of our asset-level NAV.
“Upcoming catalysts. Chapada—updated technical report including the satellite Saúva open pit (4Q26E); Vicuña—Stage 1 detailed engineering and FID (YE26), exploration results from the Caserones–Los Helados corridor (ongoing); operational improvement from full potential programs at all operations (ongoing).”
Lowering his earnings projections through 2028, Mr. Adams cut his target for Lundin shares to $42 from $44, keeping a “buy” rating. The average is $41.56.
Desjardins Securities analyst Kyle Stanley understands investor concern over the impact of GO Residential REIT’s (GO.U-T) participation in the $6.7-billion acquisition of H&R Real Estate Investment Trust (HR-UN-T), however he’s taking a “constructive” view of the deal, believing it “would mitigate GO’s portfolio concentration risk with a quality portfolio at attractive pricing, deleverage the balance sheet and increase relevance, which could create a multiple re-rate catalyst where one did not exist.”
On August 11, GO announced it had entered an agreement to acquire a portfolio of 27 properties from H&R REIT. That includes most of the Lantower Residential income-producing portfolio and two soon-to-be-completed developments in Lantower Residential Real Estate Development Trust.
“While we are not surprised by the unit price reaction since the announcement (down 11 per cent), we are generally constructive and see several positives and a few areas of concern,” he said. “On the positive side, the Lantower acquisition offers (1) substantial geographic diversification into the Sun Belt, mitigating some of the NYC political risk; (2) scale in high-growth Sun Belt markets as rental fundamentals begin to inflect; (3) an attractive basis —7.0-per-cent going-in cap rate vs private market cap rates in the mid-4 per cent to mid-5-per-cent range; and (4) increased trading liquidity, positioning GO for index inclusion upon closing and an improved leverage profile.
“The key areas of concern include (1) execution risk given the lack of operating experience in the Sun Belt; (2) substantial NAV dilution (21-per-cent pro forma dilution) and concerns about additional dilutive transactions; and (3) potential selling pressure from HR unitholders. We will formally update our estimates upon closing (expected in 4Q); however, we see pro forma 2027 FFOPU being unchanged.”
After reducing his funds from operations projections through fiscal 2027, Mr. Stanley reduced his target to US$12 from US$13.50. The average is US$14.07.
“Revisions to our 2026 and 2027 outlook primarily reflect (1) the slight 2Q26 operating miss vs our expectations; (2) a moderation to our new and renewal leasing spread assumptions (approximately 100 basis points) to reflect the recently enacted rent freeze in New York City, partially offset by a higher occupancy assumption; and (3) changes to our acquisition timing assumptions to reflect transactions that have closed since the beginning of the quarter,” he said. “
As a result of these changes, our 2026E and 2027E FFOPU decreased by 5 per cent to US$0.97 and 8 per cent to US$1.00 (up 3 per cent year-over-year), respectively. We also introduced our 2028E FFOPU of US$1.03 (up 3 per cent year-over-year), translating into a two-year FFOPU CAGR of 3 per cent (2026–28E). Assumptions underlying our 2028 estimate include SP revenue growth of 4 per cent and SP opex inflation of 3 per cent, translating into SP NOI growth of 4.5 per cent. Our NAVPU decreased to US$18.40 (from US$21.90), reflecting 10bps of cap-rate expansion to 5.1% and changes to our NAV derivation methodology."
In other analyst actions:
* National Bank’s Don DeMarco increased his target for shares of Aya Gold & Silver Inc. (AYA-T) to $43 from $41 with an “outperform” rating “to reflect ongoing exploration success at Boumadine.” The average is $40.50.
“[Second-quarter] financials [were] weighed by lower realized silver prices and timing of sales overshadowing strong operational execution marked by record mining rates and throughput, lower cash costs and reiterated guidance. After model updates, our NAVPS increased 3.5 per cent to $28.28 (was $27.33),” he said.
* Desjardins Securities’ Kyle Stanley moved his Canadian Net Real Estate Investment Trust (NET.UN-X) target to $7, exceeding the average by 2 cents, from $6.50 with a “hold” rating, while CIBC’s Sumayya Syed raised her target to $7.25 from $7 with an “outperform” rating after assuming coverage.
“NET’s 2Q26 results were slightly ahead of expectations with NOI increasing 2 per cent quarter-over-quarter,” said Mr. Stanley. “In combination with the recently completed acquisition, our FFOPU outlook increased 1 per cent, and we now contemplate 4-per-cent growth in 2026 and 3 -per-cent growth in both 2027/28. Consequently, we have raised our target ... While NET’s total return performance (up 22 per cent year-to-date vs non-sponsored peers at up 24 per cent) may be a catalyst to facilitate external growth, the resulting multiple expansion already realized keeps our Hold rating intact.”
* National Bank’s Don DeMarco hiked his Wesdome Gold Mines Ltd. (WDO-T) to $40 from $34.50 with an “outperform” rating. The average is $33.31.
“[Second-quarter financials were] mixed vs. NBCCM and consensus estimates, weighed by taxes paid. WDO reiterated production and cost guidance, continues to expect a stronger second half and accelerated shareholder returns through buybacks and dividend. After model updates, our NAVPS remained unchanged at $26.95 (was $27.11),” he said.