Inside the Market’s roundup of some of today’s key analyst actions
National Bank Financial analyst Nathan Po thinks it is unlikely another bid will emerge to rival Kirin Holdings Co.’s $2.5-billion all-cash offer for Jamieson Wellness Inc. (JWEL-T).
Accordingly, he moved his rating for the Toronto-based natural health products company to “tender” from “outperform” previously.
On June 24, Jamieson confirmed the receipt of an unsolicited takeout proposal, leading to it reach out to prospective bidders, including private equity firms and corporate interests. On Aug. 6, it entered an agreement to be acquired by Kirin, a $22-billion Japanese beverage, natural health, and consumer health company, which would offer shareholders $45.75 per share.
“The targeted auction process was relatively broad, seeing an initial outreach of 12 parties, containing both strategics and sponsors from Canada and globally,” explained Po. “The [June 24 article from Bloomberg revealing the sale process] also garnered six additional unsolicited inbound inquiries.
“Of the five non-binding proposals received during the initial process, four were in the $41.00-45.00/share range, while Kirin’s came in at $45.00-48.00/share. Ultimately, in the next phase comprising three participants (incl. Kirin), one withdrew their candidacy as they believed their final offer would be below $44.50/share and thus, noncompetitive; and one declined to submit a proposal; leaving Kirin as the final suitor with an offer of $45.00/share.”
Mr. Po also emphasized Kirin’s final offer was revised upward to $45.75 per share after negotiations with Jaimeson board.
“As the offer price was under what we had previously hoped for in our initial reaction to the strategic process news, new MIC [management information circular] disclosures in hand help to reconcile the differences,” he added. “Most notably, the use of LTM [last 12-month] EBITDA (vs. 2026e consensus), the incremental fair value attributable to [DCP Capital’s] NCI, and the adjustment for leases are the primary drivers of the takeout price differences. We also flag a slimmer precedent transactions comps table within the MIC versus ours, something we see as relatively fair given the lack of scaled pure-play VMS businesses (even more so, those that are publicly traded), and thus, transactions.”
Mr. Po moved his target for Jamieson shares to $45.75 from $51 to reflect the offer. The average is $46.43.
National Bank Financial analyst Adam Shine reduced his fourth-quarter financial forecast for Cogeco Communications Inc. (CCA-T), expecting “muted” expansion in Canada and a slight decline in margin performance at Breezeline in the United States.
He’s now projecting revenues of $694-million, down 2.0 per cent year-over-year and below his previous estimate of $695-million. His new adjusted earnings per share expectation of $2.18, down 4 cents, is a gain of 4.4 per cent from the same period in fiscal 2025. The Street is projection $692-million and $2.23, respectively.
With Cogeco entering the final year of its three-year transformation program, Mr. Shine emphasized the U.S. competitive landscape has “proven more challenging” despite “much effort.” He’s forecasting fiscal 2027 revenue and adjusted EBITDA of $2.71-billion and $1.353-billion, below the Street’s estimates of $2.73-billion and $1.372-billion and representing year-over-year declines of 2.9 per cent and 2.6 per cent, respectively.
“Dividend increase expected albeit at steadily falling rate. After many years of annual hikes of at least 10 per cent, CCA raised its dividend 8 per cent with its 4Q24 and 7 per cent with its 4Q25,” he added. “We anticipate another stepdown in f2027 and assume a 5-per-cent increase with 4Q26 for a f2027 FCF payout of 30 per cent.”
Maintaining his “sector perform” rating for Cogeco Communications shares, Mr. Shine lowered his target by $1 to $69 after pushing out his valuation period and cutting his Canadian valuation multiple “given more muted margin improvement.” The average is $73.22.
TD Cowen analyst John Mould sees Algonquin Power & Utilities Corp.’s (AQN-N, AQN-T) $126.5-million sale of its 64-per-cent ownership stake in Chilean water utility Suralis S.A to an asset manager in the South American company as a “slightly positive” development for its shares.
“While small relative to AQN’s scale (net Suralis EV = approximately 2 per cent of AQN EV), we believe Suralis stood out as a non-core asset,” he explained. “As AQN’s only utility in South America, we view the strategic rationale for divesting this asset as clear. Suralis’ pending sale reduces country risk, modestly simplifies the portfolio, and provides some incremental liquidity and deleveraging.
The Oakville, Ont.-based company, which announced a plan to move its headquarters south of the border earlier this month, said the deal for Suralis was made in an effort to simplify its ”geographic footprint while concurrently recycling capital into [its] core regulated utility businesses."
“Management has not specified parameters regarding potential portfolio optimization options, preferring to maintain flexibility and the ability to be opportunistic,” said Mr. Mould. “We acknowledge AQN could consider additional utility divestitures but would seek a clear use of proceeds in our view (mgmt. has previously guided to no equity issuance through 2027). We believe the company remains focused on operational improvements/improving earned ROE and executing on its capital plan.”
He has a “hold” rating and US$6 target for Algonquin shares. The average is US$6.81.
Desjardins Securities analyst Frederic Tremblay said two days of virtual meetings with Kits Eyecare Ltd. (KITS-T) executive team, includingco-founder and COO Joseph Thompson, “provided positive context around marketing investments and customer economics, Toronto store performance, and the path toward 2029 objectives.”
In a client note released Monday, Mr. Tremblay said the Vancouver-based e-commerce company’s marketing investments are “achieving their objective of attracting loyal, higher-value customers” and touted a “robust” outlook for the second half of 2026.
“Management explained that the temporarily elevated marketing spend observed in 1H26 (18.1 per cent of revenue vs its typical 14–16-per-cent range) reflected deliberate investments focused on acquiring highquality customers, particularly in the higher-margin glasses category,” he explained. “We are encouraged by the fact that initial order values for the 2Q26 new cohort of glasses customers were 50 per cent higher than those of the comparable cohort a year ago, and we are optimistic that these new customers will ultimately contribute to KITS’ solid LTV and retention trajectories.
“Management reiterated comfort with 3Q guidance ($62–64-million revenue, 4–6-per-cent adjusted EBITDA margin) and appears enthusiastic about the 4Q setup, citing Black Friday/Cyber Monday e-commerce activity and year-end insurance benefit expiries as key demand catalysts.”
The analyst also thinks Kits’ “long-term framework remains intact” as it reiterated its objecting of reaching $500-million of revenue and 15-per-cent-plus adjusted EBITDA margin by the end of 2029 “with no meaningful incremental capacity investments required.”
“The revenue growth rate in glasses is expected to continue to outpace that of contact lenses, fuelled in part by category penetration across North America and product mix (eg premium lenses),” he said. “Gross margin improvement is viewed as the primary margin opportunity (eg a greater glasses mix), supplemented by operating leverage in marketing, G&A and fulfillment.
“Toronto store is off to a strong start. Revenue in the Toronto store’s third week of operation was already comparable to weekly levels achieved in year 3 of the Vancouver location. In addition, brand awareness appears to be increasing meaningfully, with management citing a substantial increase in online search activity for the KITS brand across the GTA. This is aligned with the company’s view that a small number of stores in key markets is a relatively inexpensive tool to accelerate customer acquisition and brand awareness (less than $1-million capex per new store). That said, KITS continues to pursue a digital-first strategy, with brick-and-mortar expected to remain a low-single digit percentage of total revenue.”
Mr. Tremblay reaffirmed his “buy” rating and $23 target for Kits shares. The average on the Street is $23.38.
“Our constructive view on KITS is supported by its 20-per-cent-plus organic growth profile, gross margin and operating leverage opportunities, compelling trends in customer economics, and debt-free balance sheet,” he said. “At 1.9 times 2027 estimated revenue, valuation is at the mid-point of its historical range and below the peer average of 2.5 times.”
Stifel’s Suthan Sukumar thinks Propel Holdings Inc.’s (PRL-T) “structurally improving model” has set the “stage for outperformance,” beginning in the second half of the current fiscal year.
Last week, the analyst met with Clive Kinross, the chief executive of the Toronto-based fintech company, to discuss “non-prime US borrower strength (PRL’s core market), the regulatory/competitive backdrop, and long-term growth.” He came away more confident in a near-term re-acceleration in growth.
“Management reaffirmed expectations for revenue growth to accelerate to 30 per cent or more over H2 vs. mid-20s year-over-year growth in H1,” said Mr. Sukumar. “While admittedly the FY guide range is wide (implied 23-31-per-cent year-over-year growth), what we heard suggests the upper end of the guide is feasible, and Street expectations still sit below the mid-point. There are a few factors underlying that: some of it is easy year-over-year comps against the tightened underwriting posture of Q3/Q4 2025, but H2 is seasonally stronger, both demand-wise (summer/back to school spending) and credit-wise (PRL continues to see a widening funnel of higherquality borrowers as mainstream lenders tighten). And revenue yields are inflecting, to 117 per cent from 114 per cent last year, on the higher new-customer mix, further U.S. expansion, and Lending-as-aService (LaaS) scaling, and LQ management raised guidance to 115-120 per cent (vs. more than 115 per cent) for the balance of the year. UK (higher APR market) is also an underappreciated accelerant at 10 per cent of revenue with more than 53 per cent year-over-year growth (PRL expects the UK to get to 12 per cent of revenues by year-end, vs. 8 per cent last year).”
In a client note released before the bell, Mr. Sukumar also emphasized newer jurisdictions are driving volume growth and credit performance.
“Propel is employing a deliberate ‘slow walk’ approach to credit when entering new U.S. states, utilizing tighter underwriting standards to account for regional variations in spending power,” he explained. “As a result, credit performance in these new markets has been stronger than in more mature jurisdictions. This expansion is a primary growth engine, with states entered this year already accounting for well north of 20 per cent of monthly origination volumes. To support momentum, the company is focusing on refining existing and adding new channels this year (10 new marketing/ distribution channels added this year alone, bringing total to ~20) to enhance its borrower acquisition pipeline. With the Propel Bank license in hand, the company is well-positioned from a regulatory standpoint to expand from its current 32 states toward a full national footprint.”
Also applauding Propel’s “heightened focus on cash discipline,” the analyst reaffirmed his “buy” rating and $38 target for its shares. The average is $36.75.
“The company has consistently compounded growth and profitability, and our conviction in their ability to extend that track record is based on (1) a proven and disciplined playbook to navigate shifting macroeconomic conditions and grow share gains while managing credit quality; 2) leveraging its brand reputation and proprietary, in-house tech stack to service a growing pipeline of strategic partners to enable new on and off-balance sheet lending opportunities to further accelerate scale with more recurring SaaS-like revenue streams with lower credit risk and higher profitability; and 3) inorganic growth potential given strong balance sheet flexibility to complement organic growth upside with global M&A ambitions, with share buybacks and continued dividend increases serving as levers for incremental share upside,” he added.
In other analyst actions:
* Citing its improving operational performance as a well as a stronger balance sheet and “supportive macro tailwinds,” Goldman Sachs’ Marcio Farid upgraded Capstone Copper Corp. (CS-T) to “buy” from “neutral” and raised his target to $18 from $15. The average is $17.
* Canaccord Genuity’s Dalton Baretto initiated coverage of Vancouver-based Oceanic Iron Ore Corp. (FEO-X), which owns 100 per cent of the Ungava Bay property in northern Quebec at the northern end of the Labrador Iron Ore Trough. with a “speculative buy” rating and $1.50 target. The average is $1.85.
“We view Oceanic as a compelling investment option for investors looking for early exposure to an iron ore project with an exceptional resource endowment on tidewater in a proven and safe jurisdiction, with optionality around scale and product quality,” he said.
* Canaccord Genuity’s Phil Ker initiated coverage of White Gold Corp. (WGO-X) with a “speculative buy” rating and $3.40 target. The average is $5.18.
“We see the recent delivery of a PEA for its 100-per-cent-owned White Gold project in Yukon as solidifying the company into a leading multimillion-ounce gold development project in Canada. Furthermore, with a resurgence in project advancements occurring regionally, we believe the future development of satellite projects will aid in bringing White Gold to the forefront,” said Mr. Ker.
* In response to a narrowly lower EBITDA forecast, Wells Fargo’s Praneeth Satish trimmed his target on Kitchener, Ont.-based Canadian Solar Inc. (CSIQ-Q) to US$17 from US$18 with an “equal weight” rating. The average is US$16.50.