Inside the Market’s roundup of some of today’s key analyst actions
Following the release of Toronto-Dominion Bank’s (TD-T) third-quarter results on Thursday, RBC Dominion Securities analyst Darko Mihelic sees “good EPS growth and capital return for the foreseeable future.”
“Stronger than expected results were broad-based across the segments, particularly in Wholesale Banking and Corporate,” he added in a client note. “The bank updated its total PCL [provisions for credit losses] guidance to near the lower end of its previously disclosed range and expects to significantly outperform its core EPS and core ROE targets for F2026. Its core ROE of 16.0 per cent this quarter was in line with its medium-term target of 16 per cent. The bank outlined its capital return potential as close to $13-billion over and above dividends next year – we model $8 billion+ in buybacks in 2027.
Following the premarket release, TD shares rose 1.1 per cent after it reported adjusted earnings per share of $2.77, exceeding both Mr. Mihelic’s $2.51 estimate and the Street’s expectation of $2.47.
“On a consolidated basis, better than anticipated results were primarily driven by higher than expected net interest income and lower than modelled stage 3 (impaired) provision for credit losses (PCLs),” he said. “TD updated its F2026 total PCL guidance to near the lower end of its previously guided 40 to 50 bps total PCL ratio range. We model a total PCL ratio of 41 bps in 2026, slightly increasing to 44 bps in 2027. We model a total PCL ratio of 43 bps in 2028. In essence, until proven otherwise, we believe total PCLs should hover around 40 to 50 bps (absent performing reserve releases).
“The bank suggested that it is on track to significantly outperform its 6-8-per-cent core EPS growth and 13-per-cent core ROE target for F2026, provided that the current macroeconomic conditions continue – we model core EPS growth of 22 per cent and a core ROE of 14.8 per cent in F2026. Core ROE was 16.0 per cent in Q3/26, in line with its medium-term target of 16 per cent. TD has already achieved its C$900 million structural cost reduction target for F2026 and disclosed it is on track for its C$2-2.5 billion medium-term structural cost reduction target and sees potential upside, as it fundamentally resets the cost base of the bank.”
In response to the release, Mr. Mihelic made “modest” adjustments to his forecast, including core earnings estimate increases in Wholesale Banking, Canada P&C, and U.S. Banking, “partially offset by lower Wealth Management and Insurance forecasts in 2027.”
“In 2027, we mainly model lower non-interest expenses (lower efficiency ratio assumption) in Wholesale Banking, higher net interest margins (NIMs) in Canada P&C and U.S. Banking, and lower impaired PCLs in Canada P&C,” he added. “In Wealth Management and Insurance, we model higher insurance service expenses and noninterest expenses, partially offset by higher total revenues before insurance service expenses.
“Our core EPS estimates increase to $10.18 (was $9.82) in 2026 and $11.13 (was $10.72) in 2027. We introduce 2028 estimates ... and expect core EPS of $12.37 in 2028. ”
Maintaining his “outperform” rating for TD shares, Mr. Mihelic increased his target to $173 from $156. The average target is $164.70.
Other analysts making adjustments include:
* Scotia’s Mike Rizvanovic to $187 from $180 with a “sector outperform” rating.
“We were impressed by TD’s Q3 results overall, with a broad-based EPS beat highlighting strength across key business lines. The bank’s credit performance was particularly strong, with PCLs falling for the second consecutive quarter and management now expecting the loss ratio for the year to fall to the lower end of the previously guided range. Another clear positive was the bank’s lending NIM in both Canada and the U.S., with each segment having further upside in the near-term, and we would also note the better-than-expected performance for expenses as management continues to show progress on its structural cost reductions. Market-sensitive businesses were strong, consistent with what we saw from the bank’s peer group, while ROE jumped to 16.0 per cent. So we come out of the quarter with a more positive view on TD’s EPS growth trajectory as we move our estimates higher through F2027. Our PT increases commensurately, while our Sector Outperform rating is unchanged,” said Mr. Rizvanovic.
* CIBC’s Paul Holden to $187 from $184 with a “neutral” rating.
“FQ3 was a solid quarter punctuated by strong expense management and better-than-forecast impaired PCLs. We would like to see higher capital deployment into organic growth opportunities (i.e., loan growth). Our F2027E EPS is up on lower expenses,” said Mr. Holden.
* Barclays’ Brian Morton to $167 from $164 with an “underweight” rating.
“Adjusted EPS exceeded consensus on better-than-expected PCLs and to a lesser extent taxes, revenue, expenses. Credit quality improved with GILs down 3 per cent and formations 7 per cent lower. CET1 ratio was unchanged at 14.3 per cent with a buyback of 14.5 million shares,” said Mr. Morton.
* Canaccord Genuity’s Matthew Lee to $197 from $185 with a “buy” rating.
“Toronto-Dominion Bank reported very strong Q3 results [Thursday] morning with better-than-expected earnings on the back of broad-based growth, strong operating leverage, and improving credit. Our key takeaway from the quarter was the firm’s strong cost discipline, which surprised us given TD’s commitment to technology investment and AML remediation. The firm’s strong operating leverage was demonstrated across nearly every business line, suggesting that the firm’s efficiency initiatives are becoming more visible in the financial results. Credit was also a positive in the quarter at 37bps vs. our 45bps, suggesting that credit normalization is progressing faster than we had expected. We come away from the quarter more positive on the TD story and believe that, although the bank reached its medium-term ROE and efficiency targets in Q3, there is significantly further upside via both cost and capital optimization. We have raised our estimates for Capital Markets and moderated our expense expectations beyond F26,” said Mr. Lee.
* National Bank’s Gabriel Dechaine to $196 from $190 with an “outperform” rating.
“TD’s margin performance was relatively strong this quarter, with expansion delivered in both its Canadian and U.S. P&C segments,” said Mr. Dechaine. “Moreover, guidance is for continued expansion during Q4/26. We are relatively more optimistic with regard to TD’s margin outlook beyond the remainder of the year. Several factors to consider: 1) In Canada, TD’s deposit growth has been outpacing peers for a number of quarters; 2) in the U.S., TD’s deep deposit base should mitigate the impact of funding cost inflation; 3) moreover, U.S. securities yields should benefit from favourable spreads between current 7-year swap rates and the lower yields on upcoming maturities.”
Royal Bank of Canada’s (RY-T) margin performance weighed on “an otherwise good quarter,” according to National Bank Financial analyst Gabriel Dechaine.
“RY’s all-bank NIM (excluding trading) fell 4 basis points quarter-over-quarter,” he explained. Corporate loan growth (i.e., up 5 per cent quarter-over-quarter) in the Capital Markets segment was the primary driver, with 3 basis points of quarter-over-quarter NIM compression in the Canadian Banking business also playing a role. While margins are clearly important to investors, we believe they should be factored into a broader context that includes: 1) high single-digit NII growth, excluding trading NII; 2) double-digit fee income growth, which includes higher Wealth fees from customers shifting deposits into wealth products; and 3) balance sheet expansion in RY’s Capital Markets business but that depresses NIM should benefit future fee income growth, including broadening capabilities in the trading business."
RBC shares closed down 1.6 per cent on Thursday despite reporting adjusted earnings per share of $4.28, exceeding the estimates of both Mr. Dechaine ($4.14) and the Street ($4.07). He attributed the beat to higher pre-tax, pre-provision profit (12 cents, largely in Capital Markets and Wealth), lower provisions for credit losses (5 cents), which offset higher taxes (a 2-cent hit).
“Credit losses continue to outperform expectations,” added Mr. Dechaine. “RY’s 35 basis points impaired PCL ratio was better than anticipated for the second quarter in a row. This outcome was notable given expectations of higher losses in the wholesale book. While we did observe a sequential increase in GILs and formations, these were driven mainly by the CRE portfolio. These did not lead to a commensurate increase in impaired PCLs, given management’s view of strong collateral value (e.g., in CRE portfolio).
“CET 1 target lowered; organic growth and buybacks emphasized. RY updated its target CET 1 ratio to be at the midpoint of its 12.5-13.5-per-cent target range, implying $4 bln of excess capital at its current 13.5-per-cent ratio. Organic growth, especially in the Capital Markets business, is expected to be the primary consumer of excess capital, with buybacks playing an ‘outlet’ role. As it relates to M&A, which has become topical given bank valuation levels, RY downplayed the potential for large transactions in a definitive manner.”
After adjusting his forecast “to reflect strong fee income, partly offset by lower margins,” Mr. Dechaine increased his target for RBC shares to $321 from $318, keeping an “outperform” rating. The average on the Street is $297.99.
Elsewhere, other target adjustments include:
* Scotia’s Mike Rizvanovic to $312 from $311 with a “sector outperform” rating.
“While RY’s Q3 results exceeded both our expectations and consensus for the quarter, the stock sold off modestly post-earnings, a common theme that we’ve seen this quarter given the backdrop around elevated expectations and very healthy valuation multiples. Having said that, we have a favorable view on RY’s quarter overall, which highlighted another step-up for both Capital Markets and Wealth Management, with more potential upside in the near-term if market conditions remain constructive, stable performance on credit, and a jump in the bank’s ROE to a very impressive 18.1%. The offset, which we believe led to the stock seeing downward pressure was largely due to concerns on the bank’s NIM and NII trajectory that drove a miss in the Personal Banking segment. We exit the quarter still positive on RY’s medium-term outlook as we believe that the bank can outperform peers on NII growth over the medium-term by leveraging its superior deposit franchise. Our EPS forecasts increase modestly coming out of the quarter, while our SO rating is unchanged,” said Mr. Rizvanovic.
* TD Cowen’s Mario Mendonca trimmed his target to $306 from $307 with a “buy” rating.
“RY beat estimates in cap markets & wealth management, while CAD personal & commercial were softer. Similar to peers, we view beat as over-indexed to market related business. ROE topped 18 per cent (above target) and RY continues to buy back stock. RY’s scale & business mix continue to support a premium ROE & capital flexibility. We expect investors to migrate back to RY as top line slows across the group,” said Mr. Mendonca.
* Canaccord Genuity’s Matthew Lee to $318 from $310 with a “buy” rating.
“Royal Bank reported Q3 results [Thursday] morning that featured a beat in Capital Markets, solid credit, and an 18-per-cent ROE,” said Mr. Lee. “While the bank continues to deliver impressive growth in its fee-revenue businesses, we were somewhat surprised by a weaker performance in Canadian P&C, with a miss in PTPP reflecting the PPA wind-down and continued expense investments. Nevertheless, we view the quarter as a modest positive and believe that Royal Bank still has several levers to pull in Capital Markets (including its GTB announcement), while also driving further cost efficiencies and credit improvements across the bank. Our biggest question now is around the bank’s 17-per-cent ROE target, which appears somewhat conservative given the firm’s performance and capital position. Post-quarter, we have raised our estimates for Capital Markets and lowered our forecast for credit, driving our target up ... We maintain our BUY rating, with our view that Royal Bank’s outsized opportunities in Wealth and Capital Markets largely justify its premium to the group.”
Analysts on the Street making target adjustments for Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CM-T) following its third-quarter release include:
Elsewhere, others making target revisions include:
* Desjardins Securities’ Doug Young to $170 from $173 with a “hold” rating. The average target on the Street is $165.11.
“Cash EPS and adjusted pre-tax, pre-provision (PTPP) earnings were 9 per cent and 4 per cent above our estimates, respectively. Relative to our estimates, all operating divisions beat, with the vast majority of the outperformance coming from capital markets. We call this neutral because the impaired PCL rate was above our estimate and guidance. We adjusted our estimates, and lowered our target price,” said Mr. Young.
* RBC’s Darko Mihelic to $176 from $167 with an “outperform” rating.
“CM’s results were stronger than expected across most segments, though we often view strength in Corporate as unsustainable. Canadian Commercial Banking and Wealth Management was the only segment that was below forecast and included idiosyncratic credit, which we believe will likely return to normal next quarter (we have a similar view on the performing PCL release from the CRE loan sales in the U.S.),” said Mr. Mihelic.
* Canaccord Genuity’s Matthew Lee to $169 from $168 with a “hold” rating.
“Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce reported Q3 results [Thursday] morning, with EPS beating our estimates as Capital Markets strength was complemented by NIM expansion and positive operating leverage. While NIM expansion has reemerged (2bps), we expect tractor tailwinds to begin fading in F27, leaving incremental earnings growth increasingly dependent on loan growth becoming a more meaningful driver. On the credit front, impaired PCLs were elevated in the Canadian commercial bank due to idiosyncratic losses, but management noted that consumer trends improved sequentially and that Commercial losses were not indicative of broader portfolio deterioration. In our view, CM continues to deliver quality execution, but the question is now whether the bank can drive profitable loan growth at an industry-leading pace to augment its solid fee revenue momentum. We have modestly reduced our NIM and credit forecasts, offset by higher Capital Markets estimates,” said Mr. Lee.
While emphasizing the third-quarter results from EQB Inc. (EQB-T) were “messy on credit,” prompting a 6.6-per-cent drop in its share price on Thursday, RBC Dominion Securities analyst Darko Mihelic still expects “high” growth.
“EQB’s standalone business (excluding PC Financial/PCF) weakened sequentially in a meaningful way but we view PCF’s 1-month adjusted contribution to results positively,” he said. “Accurately forecasting earnings at this stage will be difficult. We stick to the idea that 2027 will be a very high growth year as it laps a 2026 year that will only include 4 months of PCF but even into 2028, we believe high double-digit growth is possible. After lowering our core EPS estimates, we expect core EPS growth of 26 per cent in 2027 and 23 per cent in 2028.”
Before the bell on Thursday, EQB reported adjusted earnings per share of $2.12, falling below both Mr. Mihelic’s $2.31 estimate and the consensus projection of $2.21
“Adjusted provision for credit losses (PCLs) excluded $219.1 million of day 1 provision on performing loans related to the acquired credit cards from PC Financial (PCF),” he explained. “Adjusted results were lower than anticipated mostly because adjusted stage 1 & 2 (performing) PCLs and non-interest expenses were higher than expected, partially offset by higher than estimated total revenues. EQB declared a quarterly dividend of $0.63 per common share, up $0.02 quarter-over-quarter, in line with our estimate.
“EQB completed the PCF acquisition on July 1, 2026 and the bank captured $15-million (pre- tax) of annualized expense synergies in the first month post-closing, on track to achieving $30 million (pre-tax) target in the first 2 years post closing. EQB suggested that on a pro- forma basis PCF would have approximately doubled revenue, excluding loyalty point costs. PCF contributed $9.5-million to adjusted net income in the 1 month of results included in Q3/26 versus a monthly pro-forma impact of approximately $8.1-million implied at the time of the acquisition announcement (based on PCF trailing-12-month net income as of September 2025 disclosed by EQB.”
In response to the release, Mr. Mihelic updated his forecast to reflect higher total PCLs and non-interest expenses, “partially offset by higher total revenues.” That led to a core EPS estimate decline to $8.96 from $9.31 for 2026 and $11.26 from $12.04 in 2027. He also introduced his 2028 estimate of $13.90.
“After lowering our estimates, we expect core EPS growth of 26 per cent in 2027 and 23 per cent in 2028,” he said. “Our estimates at this stage are probably rather error prone given our limited knowledge of PCF and how EQB can leverage that franchise. The sheer scale of change creates a big opportunity (and risk) for EQB but we land on the opportunity side, in our view.”
Reaffirming his “outperform” rating for EQB shares, Mr. Mihelic raised his target to $146 from $131. The average target is $140.29.
Elsewhere, Raymond James’ Stephen Boland downgraded EQB to “underperform” from “market perform” with a $120 target, down from $136.
“We are lowering our recommendation to Underperform from Market Perform based on the continued weakness in loan growth, higher PCLs in the legacy business and PCF. Net income (ex-PCF) is down 35 per cent year-over-year. We believe the valuation is elevated for the expected medium term ROE,” he said.
Meanwhile, other changes include:
* CIBC’s Paul Holden to $154 from $165 with an “outperformer” rating.
“There was a lot of noise to the quarter with the closing of the PC Financial transaction as expected. We maintain our Outperformer rating as we do believe EQB is in a much improved competitive position after closing the PC Financial transaction. We lower our price target from $165 to $154 on lower 2028E estimates,” said Mr. Holden.
* Desjardins Securities’ Doug Young to $150 from $155 with a “buy” rating.
“Adjusted pre-tax, pre-provision (PTPP) earnings were 16 per cent above our estimate and 14 per cent above consensus,” he said. “While it was a noisy quarter (not surprising), it wasn’t as bad as we had expected. We increased our estimates but lowered our target price.”
While investors had a harsh early reaction to its quarterly results, Desjardins Securities analyst Benoit Poirier sees Kraken Robotics Inc. (PNG-X) “navigating toward a stronger 2H.”
“We view the 2Q26 beat and unchanged guidance as positive, with encouraging comments around booking activity for 2H26,” he explained. That said, we are modestly tweaking our estimates to reflect more conservative KATFISH assumptions, assuming one order in 3Q26 and further orders in 4Q26 and beyond. Battery customer additions and Covelya’s Ocean Bottom Nodes reinforce our positive stance on the name. We slightly reduced our multiple (35 times to 32 times) following the drone-tech peer pullback, offset by supportive M&A activity in the space."
On Thursday, shares of the Toronto-based global marine technology company fell 6.3 per cent after it reported revenue of $27.3-million, a gain of 3 per cent year-over-year and above Mr. Poirier’s $26-million estimate. Adjusted EBITDA of $5-million also topped his forecast ($4.4-million).
“Management cited strong visibility at Covelya, significant SAS and battery orders in hand, and visibility on Services, with 4Q weighted above 3Q,” he said. “We now assume one KATFISH order in 3Q26 and further orders in 4Q26 and 1H27. Taking that into account, we now estimate revenue of $120-million for 3Q26 and $139-million for 4Q26 (from $126-million and $145-million). That said, the backdrop remains strong as industry towfish awards should begin this year and continue into 1H27, with activity over the next four years potentially being 3 times that of the past five years.
“Constructive outlook unchanged. Management is not seeing customers manufacture Kraken-equivalent batteries in-house, but rather the opposite. Kraken added nearly 10 UUV battery OEM customers over the past 12–20 months, signed an MSA with an additional XL-UUV manufacturer, and began supplying two other XL-UUV OEMs. OnDemand Ocean Bottom Nodes are expected to enter the commercial phase in 2027, with deployments of up to 1,000 nodes per field in the long term. That said, we slightly tweak our valuation multiple following the pullback across drone technology peers, although M&A provides support, with the Exail transaction at 38 times LTM [last 12-month] EBITDA.”
After trimming his revenue and EBITDA forecast through fiscal 2027, Mr. Poirier lowered his target for Kraken shares to $13 from $13.50, reaffirming a “buy” rating. The average on the Street is $10.48.
Elsewhere, ATB Cormark analyst Nicholas Boychuk upgraded Kraken to “sector perform” from “underperform” with a $5 target (unchanged).
“PNG reported mixed Q2/2026 results yesterday relative to estimates. Additional colour alongside the quarter was constructive in some manners, but also lacked material news to reinvigorate the stock. In particular, guidance was reaffirmed for the full-year, but visibility and program timing uncertainty back weight H2/2026 estimates, likely putting the stock in a range-bound pattern near-term. Our $5.00 Price Target is unchanged; however, we are updating our Rating to Sector Perform (from Underperform). The recent downward revision in PNG’s share price de-risks some of the valuation overhang and our concerns about geopolitical and technical headwinds. It’s always been our view that PNG has the makings to become a core Canadian defence champion. We still believe this to be the case with further execution, but remain cautious by the time to get there,” said Mr. Boychuk.
Meanwhile, Raymond James’ Steven Li cut his target to $8 from $11 with an “outperform” rating.
“In-line F2Q26 print (but lowered consensus into the print). We liked the increasing customer diversification in the power business and the solid bookings (Kraken & Covelya). Cash flow conversion trends (ex-w/c changes) look weaker year-to-date but can be explained. Target is lower as defense stocks multiples have declined in recent months,” said Mr. Li.
In other analyst actions:
* CIBC’s Robert Catellier upgraded Enbridge Inc. (ENB-T) to “outperformer” from “neutral” with a $78 target, up from $77 but remaining below the $79.80 average on the Street.
“The capital recycling transaction with KKR and Apollo is a modest positive that helps keep leverage in check during construction. The company has a significant capital program with substantial assets being placed into service in 2027. We are increasing our DCF-based price target to $78.00 (from $77.00), which includes the impact of the capital recycling transaction as well as the acquisition of the crude oil gathering system in the Permian announced on August 26. Based on recent price weakness and higher return to target, we are upgrading our rating to Outperformer from Neutral,” he explained.
* Desjardins Securities’ Allison Carson initiated coverage of Goldsky Resources Corp. (GSKR-X) with a “buy” rating and $7 target. The average on the Street is $7.38.
“Goldsky is a multi-asset Nordic-based gold developer, with a 3.6 million ounce gold equivalent resource base, exploration growth potential, and projects located in top-tier jurisdictions,” she said. “It can advance its projects quickly and become a gold producer with a potential production profile of more than 200,000 ounces per year, which we view as attractive from an M&A perspective. With significant near-term catalysts, we expect the company to continue to re-rate.”
“Key near-term catalysts ahead for re-rating opportunities. The next catalyst will be an updated resource for Barsele, expected in 3Q26. Other key updates include PEAs for Rajapalot (4Q26) and Barsele (2027). We believe these catalysts will demonstrate future upside at both projects. With CEO Russell Bradford’s background in operations and construction, we believe Barsele can be advanced in a timely manner through permitting and technical studies to a potential construction decision by 2029.”
* Ventum’s Surya Sankarasubramanian initiated coverage of Skyharbour Resources Ltd. (SYH-X) with a “buy” rating and 75-cent target.
“Skyharbour Resources is a uranium exploration and prospect-generation company with a track record of monetizing its staked claims by optioning out asset-level interests, providing investors maximum exposure to exploration upside with minimal equity dilution,” he said. “Its co-flagship Russell Lake and Moore Lake projects, located in the infrastructure-rich eastern Athabasca Basin, offer immediate exploration upside next to 9-per-cent shareholder Denison’s (DML-TSX, BUY, $5.50 PT) under-construction Phoenix mine.”
* Stifel’s Fanming Zeng initiated coverage of Vancouver-based TMC the metals company Inc. (TMC-Q) and The Metals Royalty Company Inc. (TMCR-Q) with “buy” ratings and US$10 targets.
“The gating decision on the first U.S.-permitted deep-sea mining project is expected within twelve months,” Mr. Zeng said. “One polymetallic nodule carries nickel, copper, cobalt and manganese, collected off the seafloor without drilling, blasting or tailings, and recovering all four together places the operation in the first quartile of the global nickel cost curve. We initiate on TMC the metals company Inc. (TMC-NASDAQ, Buy, Target US$10.00) and The Metals Royalty Company Inc. (TMCR-NASDAQ, Buy, Target US$10.00), two ways to own the deep-sea mining theme.
“TMC is the first mover in the Clarion-Clipperton Zone (CCZ) nodule areas, with the sector’s only declared Mineral Reserve, a collection system proven at depth, and the only live U.S. commercial recovery application. Permitting and scale-up to commercial rate are the gating risks, and their resolution ahead of Q4/27 commissioning is the catalyst for closing a 0.29 times P/NAV on our risked NAVPS, against developer/producer medians of 0.59 times/0.88 times. TMCR owns the same resource through a 2.0-per-cent gross overriding royalty on NORI areas and the Mesabi Metallics index-priced DR-pellet iron ore royalty pays first, delivering US$21Mln of revenue and positive adjusted EBITDA in 2027. We value TMCR at a premium on the imminent cash flow and management track record.”
* Citi’s Vikram Bagri reduced his target for Kitchener, Ont.-based Canadian Solar Inc. (CSIQ-Q) to US$15 from US$18, keeping a “neutral” rating. The average on the Street is US$11.90.
“The 2Q results were consequential for both FSLR [First Solar Inc] and CSIQ,” he said. “Management highlighted Section 232 as a positive for domestic manufacturers, expectations that panel pricing will likely have a ‘four handle’, cell to panel conversion cost of $0.13-$0.15/W, and disclosed pricing of $0.35/W for domestic modules pre-Section 232. The disclosed pricing confirms FSLR’s module quality discount is less than $0.05/W. CSIQ reported a topline beat due to strong storage shipments despite one of the lowest ASPs on record and weaker PV shipments. Bottom-line missed due to logistics and ramp-up costs. The company disclosed an impressive tech roadmap with multiple PV technologies and sodium-ion storage. CSIQ highlighted that the Bloomberg article exaggerates tax credit issues and Recurrent has safe harbored its key projects. Expect next year to be a transition year for CSIQ.”