Morning. In focus this week, we’re tracking a possible trade deal with the U.S., courting the world’s wealthiest investors, and making bank on blockbusters.
Up first
In the news
Autos: Upcoming Unifor negotiations with GM are expected to focus on job security for auto workers.
Ottawa: Prime Minister Mark Carney is on vacation in Italy this week, a trip his office says has been cleared by the federal Ethics Commissioner.
Crypto: A U.S. firm specializing in distressed cryptocurrency investing is bringing together victims of the Coinkite hack for a potential lawsuit.
A world turned upside down. A scene from "Spider-Man: Brand New Day."Uncredited/The Associated Press
In focus
1. Tracking trade: Canada-U.S. Minister Dominic LeBlanc is back in Washington today to press for a potential interim trade deal.
In return for concessions around dairy quotas, retaliatory tariffs, and American alcohol, The Globe’s Adrian Morrow and Mark Rendell report, Canada would secure a measure of relief for levies on Canada’s steel and aluminum sectors, which have been among the worst-hit.
Team Canada is also pressing the U.S. to drop Trump’s newest round of tariffs, which are set to take effect on Aug. 19.
“An agreement along these lines would continue Mr. Trump’s sweeping campaign to dismantle the global free-trade architecture his country spent decades building,” Morrow and Rendell write.
2. Courting cash: As U.S. President Donald Trump goes about building walls around the U.S., leaders around the world are cobbling together new trade routes, partnerships and sources of investment.
For 24 hours in September, James Bradshaw and Stephanie Levitz report, Prime Minister Mark Carney’s inaugural Canada Investment Summit will gather elite global investors with $120-trillion under management. For reference, that’s more than I’ll likely earn in a lifetime!
Carney and leaders from the two largest Canadian pension funds will have a captive audience with these financial powerbrokers to prove Canada is serious about building things this time.
“The biggest investors in the world are ... going to dedicate 24 hours to meet with Canadians. These are not people who fly in just on a whim,” Canada Pension Plan Investment Board CEO John Graham said in an interview. ”It’s a big deal.”
The federal government has set out an ambitious goal of attracting $500-billion of new private-sector investment over five years, and to fast-track energy and infrastructure projects deemed critical to the country.
3. Staying alive: A few recent economic reports have shown signs of a potential rebound. Those aren’t enough to show Canada can keep growing at this pace under the weight of U.S tariffs. But they are, nevertheless, encouraging.
On Friday, Canadian manufacturing and wholesale sales data for June are expected to underscore a relatively strong quarter of growth.
Wholesale activity is expected to be boosted by strength in machinery, equipment and supplies, RBC economists wrote in a note. Along with sturdier jobs, retail sales and housing activity, the numbers point to stronger momentum than many expected a few months ago.
The strength of Canada’s broader recovery is “highly contingent” on volatile U.S. trade policy, they warned. “Still, stronger backward-looking data is encouraging after softer readings over the winter.”
We’ll take it.
» In the U.S., Wednesday’s consumer price index for July will be closely watched in the run-up to the U.S. Federal Reserve’s next rate decision. The report will draw more attention from investors following a decision that saw three of 12 members argue for a hike over a hold.
A weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs report last week eased investor concerns of an imminent hike, helping to lift global stocks toward their strongest weekly gain since May.
4. Seeking an exit: Campaigning for his second term as President, Trump vowed to end the country’s involvement in what he has long called the “forever wars” of the Mideast.
The conflict that emerged from a U.S-Israeli attack in February is now in its sixth month. That’s far from forever, but long enough to concern even his most faithful supporters. Oil prices are elevated, and consumers are footing the bill for his tariffs, Rita Trichur writes. The average U.S. household is paying an additional US$900 in 2026, according to one estimate.
Fragile negotiations continue between Iran and Oman to open the vital Strait of Hormuz, which would help put an end to the war. But that deal would likely mean giving Tehran control over the vital global shipping route that it didn’t have before the war began. Trump has said that’s off the table, but his alternatives don’t appear much brighter. Either staying in a holding pattern or hitting Iran with fresh strikes might prove risky for the GOP in November’s midterms. The President now appears to have a choice: Concessions for Iran, or a war lasting something closer to forever.
5. Before the bell
- Taking flight: Air Canada’s second-quarter earnings call on Wednesday will be Michael Rousseau’s last as CEO. Rousseau stepped down after his English-only condolence video in the wake of a fatal Air Canada crash sparked a public backlash.
- Sailing and swinging around: Cineplex Inc., which has seen its share price rising after The Odyssey and Spider-Man: Brand New Day hit theatres last month, reports earnings on Tuesday.
- Taking stock: A packed earnings week also includes CAE Inc., Canadian Tire Corp., CCL Industries, Constellation Software, High Liner Foods Incorporated., Linamar Corp., Metro Inc., Onex Corp. You can find our full calendar of events and earnings here.
Quoted
When someone takes a bite of our ‘Filipino Breakfast,’ for example, we want it to hit like they’re eating longganisa on garlic rice with the pickled vegetables on the side.
— Steven Che, co-founder of Just Pizza in Vancouver
Unorthodox pizza shops spark cultural curiosity, one slice at a time.
Morning update
Global markets were mixed after Iran said it was nearing a final pact with Oman defining new shipping lanes in the Strait of Hormuz, and as markets awaited key U.S. inflation data on Wednesday.
Wall Street futures were also mixed with the Dow pointing lower, while TSX futures were little changed.
Overseas, the pan-European STOXX 600 was up 0.04 per cent in morning trading. Britain’s FTSE 100 slid 0.27 per cent, Germany’s DAX rose 0.29 per cent and France’s CAC 40 gave back 0.11 per cent.
In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei closed 2.08 per cent higher, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rose 1.05 per cent.
The Canadian dollar traded at 71.71 U.S. cents.